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Revisiting Past Predictions

Last week I made a few predictions. How’d they turn out?

I don’t believe the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates next week.

Wrong. I believed the Fed would keep rates steady.

I think the Fed didn’t want to disrupt markets which had already priced in a quarter-point cut this month following the Fed’s meeting last month.

The fear of upsetting the markets was there, and the Fed caved in my opinion.

I think the stock market will sell off. I think gold and treasuries will sell off.

Many investors have priced in a rate cut already, and they are preparing themselves for a potential devaluation of the US currency. If the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut rates, those three things will likely be going down.

The market did sell off today following Jerome Powell’s press conference. $SPY was down 1.10%, $GOLD was down 1.31%. However, $TLT was up 1.10%.

In this post, I made a prediction about market volatility:

I think following the Federal Reserve meeting VIX will climb up to 15 or possibly over 17 by the end of the week.

$VIX finished at 16.1 following the Fed meeting today. Fuckin’ nailed that one square on the head.

Predictions for the end of this week

VIX will peak around 23-25.

SPY pulls back to $292 by the end of this week.

IWM pulls back to $151.

I don’t mind putting my predictions out there publicly. It forces me to be accountable and maintain a critical perspective when it comes to my own beliefs.

What do you think will happen by the end of this week?

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Author: Trader Court

CPA first, pivoted to python programmer focused on data science which I apply to my own stock and options trading.

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