Today’s day in the market wasn’t only crazy, but I called it last Friday.
Shall we revisit?
As I mentioned earlier, I expect IWM to pullback 5-7% since it broke the $153.50 support level earlier today.
IWM was down 3.71% today alone. Look at the support levels I nailed on this call here:
Once IWM broke below $1541, it hovered there for a bried time before selling off today.
SPY is a little trickier for me. It tends to whipsaw in price when volatility picks up, possibly due to algorithmic and HF trading. I think we see SPY revisit $285 range before the end of next week (Aug 9 expiry), but it’ll be a rocky ride.
SPY visited $285 today. Completely unexpected by me. I thought it would take a while to drag the SPY down given how well it’s performed relative to the rest of the market.
There was a huge gap down on SPY this morning and we finished down 3.59% today.
I think VIX will also whipsaw next week, seeing a range with a low 14.7 and all the way up to 23.5. That’s just my guess.
VIX high of the day: 24.8. Well damn, it could actually go higher. I wasn’t expecting VIX to jump the way it did today.
Markets sold off so quickly today. I wouldn’t be surprised if tomorrow is a slow day or even a little rally off today’s quick selloff.
But there is still a ton of risk in this market right now. China retaliated against US tariffs by halting the purchase of US agriculture. Xi isn’t very happy right now.
I don’t know what is going to happen next to be honest. I took $4.6K in profits today, mainly from SPY puts, IWM puts, and VXX calls that I had been building up over the past two months.
I hedge all of my trades because I’m bad at predictions. But my best guess is that tomorrow is a day for the market to catch its breath, but I do expect this selloff to continue through the end of this week.
Also, a VIX explosion tomorrow or Wednesday remains on the table. I’m talking 70% gains or more…
This is subject to trade if US-China negotiations and relationship recover in the coming days.