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This is what’s going to happen in the market this week

In this article, I’m going to review my past predictions and make some new ones.

On August 3rd, I wrote a post laying out what I thought would happen. Shall we take a look?

As I mentioned earlier, I expect IWM to pullback 5-7% since it broke the $153.50 support level earlier today.

IWM finished this week down 1.28%. I didn’t put a date on the 5-7% pullback, but this is something I expect to play out within the next two weeks.

This would give you a range of $144.95 all the way down to $141.90 coming into play.

At a minimum, I do believe that $145 will be retested. This is the level that IWM dropped to in May following the added tariff announcements. See IWM chart below:

iwm81019

SPY is a little trickier for me. It tends to whipsaw in price when volatility picks up, possibly due to algorithmic and HF trading. I think we see SPY revisit $285 range before the end of next week (Aug 9 expiry), but it’ll be a rocky ride.

SPY surprised me this week with the massive selloff that took place on Monday. I thought it would be a rockier ride to get down to $285, but we actually touched as low as $281.72 on Monday!

I was correct about the whipsaw though! Tuesday and Wednesday started off as days that looked like they were ripe for shorting, but the market ripped back almost 2% higher come Thursday, and 4% higher off Wednesday’s lows.

I believe that this upcoming week (August 12-19) will see SPY dropping as low as $279, retesting those levels reached around May 13 this year, in the midst of the May selloff that took place.

I’m also watching the $272 price level to get rested in the next two weeks. See SPY chart below:

I think VIX will also whipsaw next week, seeing a range with a low 14.7 and all the way up to 23.5. That’s just my guess.

This week, VIX saw a high of 24.8 and a low of 16.8. Not too bad of a prediction!

Next week I’m looking for a high of 26 on VIX and a low of 17. Keep in mind, when VIX is this high and with the current news, a much higher VIX is always possible.

I mentioned on my Twitter that I picked up some VXX call options and XLF put options to set up for whatever could happen next week.

These are a small part of my portfolio. I have positions both long and short in tickers or tickers derived from the ones mentioned above.

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Author: Trader Court

CPA first, pivoted to python programmer focused on data science which I apply to my own stock and options trading.

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