Design a site like this with WordPress.com
Get started

Derive pleasure from following your trading rules, not from profits

One of the most difficult things in trading is associating pain or pleasure with following (or not following) your trading rules, and not from your day-to-day trading results.

Trading results are random. That is a fact.

For example, let’s say you have an edge that results in you being profitable 60% of the time. This means that you will still lose money on 40% of your trades. Beating yourself up for these losses has zero benefit to you as a trader.

We are battling ourselves

The human psyche is fragile. We are battling our egos.

Sometimes in trading we get more concerned about being “right” than making money. This is why we sit on losing positions, hoping they come back in our favor. This is why we don’t take small losses, allowing them to turn into big ones.

I was stuck in a rut, which I’m working towards getting out of. Today has been a step in the right direction for me. Today my focus is on following my trading rules, not make a profit per se. This is really hard to do. Besides, isn’t the goal to make profits after all?

Associate positive feelings with following your trading rules, not the end results

Accepting that a trade is going against you and cutting it should be associated with positive feelings because you cut those losers early.

No one wants to lose money, and that’s why it’s so hard to associate a positive feeling with taking a loss. Taking losses sucks, and we all wish they were avoidable.

It’s difficult to do this. Losing money hurts. But, it’s important to reframe losses as a cost of running your trading business.

I have to remind myself to be impatient with losing trades. I can’t fear cutting a loser too soon. If trade doesn’t feel right and isn’t going the way I expect it to, it’s okay to cut it.

I have to remind myself to not look back at trades that have been cut loose. This look back bias makes me kick myself for not holding a trade longer. This is detrimental to my future trading performance, because I end up holding losers longer that should’ve been cut the moment they no longer felt like good trades.

I have to remind myself that I can always re-enter a trade if an attractive setup presents itself once again.

Dealing with randomness

Establishing a set of trading rules, and sticking to those trading rules has proved to me to result in more profitable trades rather than focusing on profits alone.

If you have a legitimate edge in the market, a set of good trading rules to follow, then profits will follow as result of disciplined trading.

Advertisement

This week was rough for me

I got my ass kicked this week by the market.

It started early in the week, when I bought WORK and SPCE call options, just before the market reversed course on Monday and sold off in the final hours of the day. Because the SPCE options expired on Friday of the same week, I had no choice to cut this loser. Only to see it rip higher Thursday and Friday.

I started the week in a hole, down $1,100.

I spent the rest of the week trying to climb out of the hole, only to make the situation worse. End result, down $4,000 on the week.

How did this happen?

Getting in a hole sucks. Spending the rest of the time trying to climb out of the hole led me to making sloppy trades, overtrading, and putting on trades that I wouldn’t normally make on SPY and IWM that I told myself were “hedges” in case the market sold again.

I forgot what was working.

I forgot how I made $12,000 in a matter of weeks from May 27th to June 19th.

Nothing seemed to work.

Every trade went against me as soon as I entered it. Or so I thought.

Either way, it doesn’t matter what they did.

What did matter was my mindset sucked. I was in a bad mental state, and desperately tried to “undo” my bad trades from the early part of the week, only to have even more bad trades to “undo”.

I wasn’t doing what works for me.

I started trading options expiring this week. I started day trading more even though I very much prefer swing trading a position for 1-2 weeks.

I cut winners too soon (primarily due to short-dated options being traded).

I let losers run on too long.

I added to losing positions.

I put on positions that were not favorable from the get go.

I spent too much time this week hoping for my positions to go in my favor.

Now is a time for reflection

It’s the weekend. My trading week sucked. But I still live to trade another day.

Goal #1 and always: DON’T LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY. When the money is gone, the game is over.

I’m going to take this weekend to reflect on my trades. I will review past trades further and understand what happened and why it happened. I will try to understand what my mental state was when I entered into those trades.

Trading is hard. It’s hard to tell by all the so-called experts all over social media. They’d have you believe they make profits all day. You rarely see is the hard part of trading. The part where it beats the shit out of you and makes you question why you started in the first place.

I share this for anyone else who had a bad day, week, month, or year. It’s not easy. It’s not supposed to be easy. I knew that. You know that. So take time to reflect, take care of yourself, and objectively review those trades and improve the process. It’s the only thing I know how to do.

Trading in the Zone – Book Notes

I recently finished reading Mark Douglas’s book, Trading in the Zone. This book found me at an opportune time, as I’ve been going through a rough patch with my trading and especially my mindset while trade.

If there is one book I highly recommend you read as a trader to get your state of mind right, it’s Trading in the Zone. Here are my book summary notes below. Note that my summary notes are not short. It’s over 2,500 words of the best wisdom I pulled out of the book.

Book Summary Notes

Have confidence in trades.

Focus on opportunities.

Fundamental analysis is the study of finding supply and demand of an investment based off fundamental information.

Technical analysis is based off patterns in an investments’ historical data.

Technical analysis is more “in the moment” than fundamental analysis. You react in the moment to changes in prices.

Good traders have rules for entry and exits.

Accept risk before putting on a position and never assume you are correct. Be quick to admit you’re wrong.

Accept the possibility that you will lose money so that you can objectively manage a position.

Good traders aren’t afraid because they have effective management strategies to enter and exit trades.

The four primary trading fears are:

  1. Being wrong
  2. Losing money
  3. Missing out
  4. Leaving money on the table

We blame the market for our losing money.

How you view the market affects the consistency of your results.

You can never know the myriad of ways the market can make you lose money.

Accept that the outcome of a trade is unknown, and that one trade is not a reflection on you as a trader. Failure to accept this leads to costly decisions.

Doing more market analysis will not make you a better trader. Acceptance of what the market is will.

Accept the risk you take on with every trade, and you will no longer be afraid.

Trade without fear, and have rules to prevent reckless behavior.

The market presents you with unlimited possibilities, and this can challenge those not equipped to deal with this fact.

Desires are generated internally, but must be fulfilled externally.

Once we identify a desire we are drawn to fill that desire externally. Denial of this opportunity to fulfill a desire leads to pain.

Accept that trades are a probabilistic outcome, and define how much risk you are willing to take on this probability.

Prices always move. Your entries and exits last as long as you want.

The market will not make you exit a trade. You must do that. Don’t be a passive loser. Actively lose by defining your risk.

Trading gives you ultimate freedom. This can be a curse because you have no structure to follow.

Most of those who get into trading initially struggle to create a set of rules to follow.

That which draws us to trading is the same thing that makes us resist creating trading rules.

Your impulses hinder your ability to trade well for psychological reasons.

You must keep yourself responsible for the way you take profits and take losses.

If you play probabilistic edges, you must be consistent in how you trade them and not get thrown off by a few losing trades.

Don’t get hung up on any single trade.

Adapt to your environment and create rules so that you can adapt appropriately.

Winning early as a trader can hurt your long-term performance.

Trying to “understand why” the markets do something can hurt you in the long run.

Your mental attitude will produce better results than analysis alone.

Trading can be a simple pursuit in which you don’t need a ton of skills, but rather a winning attitude.

Operate from the belief that trading losses are a natural part of trading and should be considered as your business expenses.

We feel pain when reality fails to meet our expectations, especially when they are unrealistic.

Losing traders blame markets for their losses.

You blame markets for your results if you don’t accept the randomness of markets, have rules to protect you against this randomness, and take responsibility of your results.

Your goal is to extract money from the market, and the markets’ goal is to extract money from you.

Markets owe you nothing. Don’t blame them for your losses.

Take complete responsibility of your trading. Otherwise you will view the market as your adversary and you believe that your problems can be fixed by better analysis.

Every entry and exit on a trade is an opportunity for you to act in your own best interest.

You are never fighting the market, because it owes you nothing.

Learning about markets isn’t bad, but it can give you a false confidence that you know what will happen next and ignore the randomness inherent to markets.

Learning more about markets isn’t going to eliminate losing trades. Don’t take losing trades personally.

Accept your losses and you will no longer view market information as painful. You will view it as it is, information.

Our bias to avoid pain makes us ignore or alter information that the market provide us.

In sports there is a more discernible connection between one’s focus and results. It’s harder to see this connection in trading.

Leaving money on the table can be more painful than taking a loss because you know you missed out on a large profit.

Make winning and consistency are states of mind.

Make yourself available to what the market is offering you.

Our biases make us interpret information that is favorable to our own egos, even though it can hurt more in the long run.

Fear causes 95% of the errors you are likely to make.

Think about trading in a way that keeps fear at bay so that you can continue to focus on opportunities.

Let the market unfold and make yourself available to opportunities with a clear mind.

Accept risk and you won’t have anything to fear.

You see what you’ve learned to see, and miss that which you haven’t learned to see.

Every trade is an edge with a probable outcome. Know this to define your risk, and eliminate your fears.

Perceive the market objectively. Don’t project your own feelings on the market.

Your emotional mind links your current state to your most recent trading experiences, which can be painful and create a fearful state of mind.

The “secret” to trading well is four items:

  1. Trade without fear OR overconfidence
  2. Perceive what the market is offering clearly
  3. Stay focused on the “now moment opportunity flow”
  4. Enter the “zone” and believe in an uncertain outcome with an edge in your favor

Great traders don’t let emotions of recent trades influence their process.

To be a consistently successful trader one must learn adapt.

It can take years for most traders to figure out that consistency trumps picking the occasional winner.

The best traders cut their losses without hesitation if the market tells them it’s not working.

The three most costly trading errors you can make

  1. Not predefining your risk
  2. Not cutting your losses
  3. Not systematically taking profits

Thinking that you “know” what will happen next is the cause of most trading errors you will make.

The most effective trading belief you can acquire is “anything can happen.”

Every trader acts on their own belief about what is high and what is low, and collective behavior pattern is displayed in the price at that moment.

Every trade you make is unique from every other trade you’ve made.

Train your mind to think in probabilities, and have actions that you take to deal with these unknown outcomes.

Don’t ever convince yourself you’re right when you enter into a trade. Instead, define the risk.

When you think you know what will happen, you are effectively thinking you know the future actions of every single individual and how they will move prices.

Markets are unique, anything is possible. To ignore this fact is foolish.

Your beliefs are shaped by your expectations. These beliefs cause you perceive market information that confirms your bias, and ignore market information that conflicts with your bias.

Market information that goes against our position is ignored when we find it too painful to acknowledge.

We focus on information that helps minimize our pain, which is destructive to our trading.

We lose out on opportunities when we choose to ignore what the market is telling us.

Our pain-avoidance mechanism shields us from seeing information that is not aligned with our beliefs.

Traders must learn to be rigid in our rules, and flexible in our expectations.

There are five fundamental truths you must accept to think probabilistically:

  1. Anything can happen
  2. You don’t need to know what will happen next to make money
  3. Wins and losses are randomly distributed for any given edge
  4. An edge is an indication of higher probability of one thing over another
  5. Every moment in the market is unique

When you put on a trade, your only expectation is that something will happen. That’s it.

Define a stop loss for every trade. This should be some point where the odds of success are greatly diminished in relation to the potential profit.

Losses are the cost of doing business in the course of finding winning trades.

Each moment in the market is an opportunity to do something on your behalf. You always have an opportunity to:

  1. Scratch a trade
  2. Trade profits
  3. Cut losses
  4. Add or detract from a position

Expectations are beliefs projected into some future moment.

We can’t know what to expect from the market because other traders are always there to enter and exit trades based off their own beliefs about the future.

The only thing you should “know” in trading is what an edge looks like, how much you need to risk, and a plan for taking profits or losses on a trade. You can never know if any one trade will work out.

Don’t have an agenda when you trade. Make yourself available to the opportunities the market makes available to you with a clear mind.

Emotional pain is a response we have when the world expresses itself in a manner opposite of our beliefs.

Don’t expect the market to make you “right” or “wrong”.

Don’t expect to market to go in your favor forever. Establish rules for taking profits.

Gathering more information to predict if a coin will flip heads or tails is silly. Why would you expect it to work in the markets? Remember that every trade is probabilistic.

Every moment is unique, and therefore you will never “know” what will happen next.

Don’t try to change your beliefs. Remove the energy behind that belief, and channel it towards better beliefs.

It’s hard to make new discoveries when your internal beliefs conflict with those discoveries.

The underlying cause of fear in trading is interpreting market information as threatening.

You must believe that every edge has a unique outcome in order to trade without fear.

You must believe you don’t know what is going to happen next.

Train your mind to expect a unique outcome in order to see market information objectively.

Believe that each moment is unique in order to achieve mental freedom while trading.

Trading is a pattern recognition numbers game. Identify patterns for some edge, define your risk, and take profits consistently. Some trades work and some don’t. Don’t take it personally.

Trading is one of the hardest things to do because the more you think you know, the less successful you’ll be.

Manage your expectations as a trader and align your mental environment with the five fundamental truths.

  1. Trust yourself to operate in an unlimited environment
  2. Focus on flawlessly executing a trading system
  3. Think in probabilities – the five fundamental truths
  4. Create a strong belief in your consistency as a trader

Your primary objective as a trade should be to produce consistent results. The way you do that is by following your trading rules with unshakeable confidence.

Consistency should be your primary reason for trading.

Making mistakes will happen until your beliefs are in harmony with your desires and your beliefs are consistent with what works from an environment’s perspective.

Don’t think less of yourself when you make mistakes.

Mistakes should not hold negatively charged energy for you.

Beliefs must be in alignment with goals and desires to eliminate any conflicting energy.

You must create the belief that you are a consistently successful trader.

Don’t make it a goal to guess correctly. Make it a goal to be consistent with your techniques.

Tell yourself, I am a consistent winner because:

  1. I objectively identify my edges
  2. I predefine the risk of every trade
  3. I accept risk and am willing to let go of trades
  4. I act on my edge without hesitation
  5. I pay myself as the markets make profits available to me
  6. I monitor myself for my susceptibility to make errors
  7. I never violate these principles above

To be an objective observer, think from the market’s perspective. There are always unknown forces waiting to act on price movement so that every moment is truly unique.

The typical trading errors are:

  1. Hesitating
  2. Jumping the gun
  3. Not predefining risk
  4. Defining risk but not taking a loss
  5. Exiting a winning trade too soon
  6. Not taking profits on a winning trade
  7. Letting a winning trade turn into a loser
  8. Moving stop too close to your entry point
  9. Trading too large a position in relation to your equity

You can change your identity by changing your desires.

Losses call for larger % returns in order to be profitable. A 50% loss requires a 100% return to become profitable again.

Divide your position into thirds or quarters, and scale out of the position when taking profits.

Take off a portion of a winning position whenever the market presents you with the opportunity to do so.

In a three contract trade, establish a stop loss, and take profits by scaling out of the position one contract at a time.

Scale out of positions to create “risk-free opportunities”. These are positions where you have taken profits to the extent of max loss allowable on the remainder of the position, therefore guaranteeing a break-even trade at a minimum.

Try to achieve a risk to reward ratio of 3:1, which means you risk one dollar for every three dollars of profit potential.

Success or failure of a strategy should be based off a sample size of 20 trades or more.

An edge is merely a snapshot which captures a limited portion of all probabilities.

Be willing to make 20 trades on a strategy before making a judgement of its effectiveness.

Follow your trading rules and focus on the five fundamental truths in trading.

If you can go through 20 trades without allowing your emotions to influence you adherence to rules and probabilities, then you discover that thinking in probabilities is a functioning part of your identity.

Conclusion

Again, if there is one book I highly recommend you read as a trader to get your state of mind right, it’s Trading in the Zone.

Affiliate links are used above. Your purchases help to support the content of this blog. Thank you!

How to write trading rules

Do something.

Realize, oh shit I shouldn’t have done that.

Write down what you shouldn’t do.

Result: new trading rule.

Tip: Study those things that have ruined those who have come before you. Better to understand someone else’s big blunder to avoid one happening to yourself.

Why you should ask more questions

Asking questions is important.

Why is asking questions important?

Questions force you to think about a topic in terms of what you don’t know. Rather than reading a text or a highlighted passage, and thinking “I got this”, questions force you to search deeper for something else: the unknown.

Why do questions force you to think about what you don’t know?

We are curious people. We like to know the answer to questions. When we ask questions, there’s a natural desire to find and answer to those questions.

When you write questions down about a topic you are learning, you are forcing yourself to read and interpret information from the perspective of finding out what you don’t know.

How can you ask more questions?

Just write down more questions every day. Write down your to do list in the form of questions. Ask yourself, what am I going to get done today? What needs to be worked on first? What are those most important items on my to do list?

Write down questions about a topic you want to learn. Start by writing questions that you want to know the answer to. When you have answers that you are seeking, learning becomes easier.

Writing questions gives your mind something to search for. If you go into a topic with a bunch of questions, personalized to you, you will learn a subject much faster.

I guarantee it.

You are your own worst enemy

It’s easy to blame others.

It’s hard to blame yourself.

It’s easy to blame things out of your control.

It’s hard to blame those things that are within your control.

Rules can help you make better decisions. Your goal should be to follow your rules. Not making money. Making money should be a product of following your rules.

Don’t think of yourself as a gamblin’ man. Think of yourself as a risk manager.

Make smarter bets through time. Don’t trade too big in any one position or in any one day. When you place your bets is just as important as where you place your bets.

When I stopped trying to be right, I became a better trader

I began my journey trading stock options in September of 2018. When I entered the trading arena, market volatility was picking up. This was the environment I traded and adapted to over the three months from October to December of last year, 2018.

During this time period I learned to trade options in an extremely volatile environment. I was able to successfully gain over ten thousand dollars on my small account in December by being short on the market.

I primarily bought put options on bank stocks and other stocks that were experiences drastic declines at the time. My portfolio saw outsized gains which I had experienced up until that point. Enjoying the outsized (mostly unrealized) profits that I reaped up to Christmas Eve, I continued to buy put options on the market.

This turned out to be disastrous.

The subsequent decline

All through January until April, I had the thought that the market shouldn’t be going higher. I absolutely knew what was going to happen next. Or so I thought…

At the time, I was following Fintech Twitter. I wanted to know what was “happening” in the market, and took to Twitter to see what people were saying.

90% of the people on there seem to be bearish during the first quarter of this year. This influenced my investing and my perspective of the market.

The illusion of being a good trader

It took a while, but at some point I realized that being right, or the illusion of being right, doesn’t put money in the bank account.

I called it!

On Twitter it’s easy for people to create the illusion that they called many good trades. It’s easy to do. All you have to do is post a bunch of charts calling bullish or bearish, put them on Twitter, let the market play out, and then delete your tweets that were wrong. Then you can easily pin your tweets where you “called” the market top or Market bottom.

I got caught up in the Twitter atmosphere and my trading suffered. Being right doesn’t matter.

Hedging instead of guessing

In recent weeks I’ve developed better hedges on my trades.

I like to build up large put options positions at times when I believe the market could go down over the next few months.

In the first quarter of this year, I built up put option positions, and lost a significant amount of the value that I put into those positions. It’s only after reflecting and experiencing the pain of those few months then I realize how important it is to hedge my trades.

I was concerned with effectively predicting what was going to happen in the market. I wanted to be right, and I would only enter trades on one side of the mark get out of time. This was stupid. I lost out on a ton of games I could have gotten all throughout January and February and even into March and April.

Current endeavors

I’m currently building up put option positions on SPY and IWM.  I’m hedging the position by buying shorter-dated call options, debit spreads actually, and then collecting profits when the underlying stock price land somewhere in between the two strike prices of my debit spread. This has been a much more effective strategy and has kept my portfolio more even overtime while I continue to build up a larger put option positions.

Ideally, call options on the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 Index will continue to gain value in excess of the value that I lose on those longer-dated put options while the market continue to rip higher. Then, when the market does turn, I’ll have built up a decent size put option position to benefit from larger price declines.

Conclusion

I believed I had to try to predict the market and be correct. Instead I have to be flexible, I have to adapt, and I have to head to effectively on my positions.

To be a good trader, ignore what other people say

I have a problem. I spend too much time and have given too much attention to financial news and to what Twitter gurus say about the market.

Every morning when I wake up, I check the financial news to see if anything has happened overnight. Every day for the past two months it’s been the same old story: a potential US-China trade deal lifts the market. Every single day, the same headline is regurgitated.

It doesn’t feel right

Surely this can’t be right. I had a sense that we weren’t going to get a China trade deal soon after listening Donald Trump’s trade advisor, Robert Lighthizer’s testimony to the Senate. I also don’t think this a unique observation.

I’ve grown frustrated with this narrative, and I don’t believe that’s what is powering the market up words. According to a recent story from the South China Morning Post, a potential Trump-Xi meeting probably isn’t going to take place until June at the earliest.

Fast Money

At night I like to see what the “gurus” on CNBC’s Fast Money say about the market. As an independent trader, this is one of the way I can get an idea of what others are saying about the market. But this didn’t leave me satisfied.

Finding reason on Twitter

In an effort to find out what is with really going on in the market, I turned to Twitter. I began to follow a lot of Twitter “gurus” to see their thoughts. While they give a good effort, many of these guys have been very wrong too. Fact is, a ton of perma-bears have decent followings on Twitter. I’ve been following a few of these bears over the past two months as the market has ripped higher and higher.

Manipulator in Chief

Many of these bears complain about how the market is manipulated, blame the plunge protection team, and blame Donald Trump for influencing sentiment following algorithms with his tweets and headline-making quotes.

I have no doubt that Donald Trump is more obsessed with the stock market than any other President that we have ever seen (at least publicly). However, I find it hard to believe that he is single-handedly manipulating the market when you consider millions or possibly billions of players in the market today.

Even if I’m wrong about this, it doesn’t change what is happening in the market. I must better learn how to roll with the punches.

Even if Trump manipulates the market, it’s up to me to see that and use it to my advantage to make money.

To succeed, you must trade the market that is given to you

At the end of the day, to succeed in the market, I must understand that the market can stay wrong longer than you or I can stay solvent.

I think you can gain some insight from reading financial news and hearing people discuss the market on Twitter. But it’s important that you develop your own instinct of the market and use this mental model to come up with an honest assessment of the market. It’s important that your mental model fits your personality and your beliefs about the world.

It’s possible for two people to have two different approaches to the market and still make money. It’s happened for years and will continue to happen.

No more “gurus”

It’s very easy to get caught up in the convincing charts that perma-bears post on Twitter every single day and fool yourself into believing that your short position is the right position to be in at this specific moment in time. I know because that’s what I’ve been doing to myself. And that’s on me. I own that.

It’s a fool’s errand if you rely on gurus to give you hidden insight into the market. At the end of the day, we’re all players in the giant ocean that is the stock market. The most important thing you can do is watch the movements of the waves and try to catch the ones that you believe in the most.

For this reason, I’m working towards ensuring I don’t give too much attention to financial news or what individual people think of the market, because I find that it has been skewing my own perspective and my own beliefs about the market.

More signal, less noise

We live in a world where there is so much noise, and separating the signal from the noise is one of the hardest things to do. The solution to noise isn’t by adding more noise but to take noise out of the equation.

From this day forward, I’m going to make an effort to give less of my attention to the financial news and instead focus on those few things that really matter and move the market today.

This isn’t mean to be self-righteous, but more so a reminder to myself (and for your possible benefit) to develop a system and expectations of the market, carefully track those expectations from day-to-day, look for any divergences between those expectations and what’s actually happening in the market, and adapt accordingly. Because at the end of the day the markets and gurus don’t care if I make money. That’s on me.

Do or have you watched any financial news or Twitter gurus? Are you a recovering news follower? Let me know with a comment below.