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What are Federal Reserve repo operations?

Repo operations (within the context of the Federal Reserve) are Repurchase agreements and are conducted only with primary dealers.

The Fed purchases Treasury, agency debt, or agency mortgage-backed securities from a counterparty, subject to an agreement to resell the securities at a later time.

It’s similar to having a loan that is collateralized with assets. These assets from the banks have a higher value than the loan to protect the Fed against market and credit risk.

Repo transaction temporarily increase the quantity of reserves in the banking system.

The New York Fed began conducting repo operations in September 2019 to ensure supply of reserves is ample and to mitigate risks of money market pressures near year-end that could affect policy implementation of interest rates.

What is a repo?

Repo is a generic name for repurchase transactions (which can include buying or selling). It is a transaction in which one party sells an asset (such as Treasury Bonds) to another party at a set price and commits to repurchase the same assets from the same party at some future date.

If the seller defaults, the buyer is free to sell that asset to a third party to offset their loss. This is what makes a repo very similar to a collateralized or secured deposit.

How is repo rate determined?

The difference between the price paid by the buyer at the start of the repo and the price received at the end is effectively the lending rate on the repo. This is known as the repo rate or repo interest.

Why are repurchase agreements (repos) used?

Repurchase agreements can serve four different functions for various market participants:

  1. They are a safe investment
  2. Borrowing costs on repos are very cheap
  3. Yields can be enhanced for those holding a large amount of safer assets
  4. They provides a means for short-selling and short-covering

It’s safe because the cash is secured by collateral, which is generally safe assets. Makes it easy for seller of repo to make money back by selling those secured assets.

Yields are enhanced because a party could lend out a high demand asset to the market, and in return they receive cash for cheap which can be used for funding or reinvesting profits.

Why do banks use repos?

Banks will use repurchase agreements (repos) for short-term borrowing. They do this to raise short-term capital and generally use agreements which are very short-term, generally overnight or 48 hours.

The implicit interest rates on these agreements is known as the repo rate, and is a proxy for the overnight risk-free rate.

Repo can be used for many purposes. One such purpose would be as an efficient source of short-term funding

It also allows institutional investors to meet liquidity requirements without having to liquidate long-term investments. The repo market has become an important source of cash for non-banks to meet Basel regulatory requirements.

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Who and What are primary dealers?

Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in the implementation of monetary policy. The make markets for the NY Fed as needed, and bid on a pro-rate basis in all Treasury auctions at reasonably competitive prices.

There are 24 banks designated as primary dealers. Well known banks that are primary dealers include JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citi Group, Deutsche Bank, just to name a few.

Why do we have primary dealers?

Primary dealers are counterparties who buy government securities and resell them to the overall market. These are banks that have an inside track to buy US Treasuries.

Primary dealers purchase the vast majority of the U.S. Treasury securities (T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds) sold at auction. They will then resell those securities to the public. Their activities extend well beyond the Treasury market.

Arguably, this group’s members are the most influential and powerful non-governmental institutions in global financial markets.

Where are primary dealers located?

Many dealers are in the US. There are also dealers across the globe, including Japan and Europe that distribute US Treasuries to those geographical areas of the world.

What are the requirements for primary dealers?

Firms must meet specific capital requirements before it can become a primary dealer.

The capital requirements for broker-dealers that are not affiliated with a bank is $50 million. Banks acting as primary dealers need to have $1 billion of Tier 1 capital (equity capital and disclosed reserves).

Prospective primary dealers need to show they made markets consistently in Treasuries for at least a year before their application.

Did the Federal Reserve Kill the Volatility Trade?

On October 11, 2019, the Federal Reserve announced they would begin buying Treasury Bills in an effort to ensure there are “ample reserves” in the banking system through the end of the year.

fed treasury oct 11

On October 11, 2019, the Volatility Index (VIX) sat at 17.4. Today on November 26, 2019 the VIX has recently closed at 11.5. As you can see from below, it appears as though this not-QE program that is “organically” growing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has effectively killed the long VIX trade.

fed vix chart

The case made that supports this idea is that investors are engaging in more risk on behavior, because they are basing their decisions based on the Federal Reserve’s prior balance sheet expansion programs (QE 1-3).

Because the Fed is purchasing T-bills, they have eased some of the money market pressures. Liquidity in the market has proven to be a positive catalyst to the market.

Why do I believe this?

It can’t be the trade deal.

That’s the only other source that has been moving the markets higher according to many daily stock market new reporters. And I don’t believe these markets are pushing higher on hopes of a trade deal.

I think the Fed’s easy money policies have once again eased tensions. For now.

A lesson to me

This whole scenario has taught me a valuable lesson about position sizing. I’ve learned to not be so overconfident in my predictions.

Every trade made is a small bet. Each bet will abide by the Kelly criterion.

Never go all in.

Grow your money slowly and strategically.

Live to trade another day.

Read

Barton_options on Twitter has been a great resource for me to learn more about the Federal Reserve operations and how it relates to the Treasury and the overall economy.

He recently wrote about this in a newsletter you can read here.

What’s going on in the stock market today? August 7th 2019 Edition

In the futures market, the S&P 500 was up 50 basis points overnight just before 6 am this morning.

As of this writing this the S&P 500 futures have tanked precipitously. At 8:10 a.m. the S&P 500 futures are down 45 basis points, almost a full 100 basis point swing from just two hours ago.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/p8mSqCAI/

What are bonds doing today?

Bond prices continue to rise today. The 10-year T-note Futures are up 50 basis points this morning driving expected yields down as central banks across the globe continue to implement easy money policies.

What is the Yuan doing today?

Yesterday, it appeared that China was letting their foot off the gas. However, their currency is devalued again today. After dropping slightly yesterday, the USD/Yuan exchange rate is up 34 basis points.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tXuE6O4l/

The concern is if China doesn’t have control over the currency. As I mentioned the other day, if China loses control over their currency it could be very bad for global markets.

What should you watch for today?

Based off the futures behavior in the past two hours, and the volatility index spiking up 9% off of its morning lows from just a few hours ago, this could be an interesting day in the market with more selling to come.

I’m not sure what’s going on in the market at the moment but it seems like investors are dumping risk assets.

Money seems to be piling into bonds at the moment.

Also money is piling into commodities. Gold is up 1.62% from the prior day. gold continues to Rally in the face of easy monetary policies engaged by the central banks across the globe.

What’s going on globally?

According to a report from Bloomberg, global easing is picking up pace as New Zealand shocked the market with a bigger rate cut than expected.

New Zealand’s Central Bank reduced its cash rate by 50 basis points. New Zealand Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr didn’t rule out negative interest rates to help prop up inflation.

This cut by New Zealand mirrors what’s been going on in  Europe, Japan, and what will be coming in the United States in the near future.

Interest rates are getting cut. They’re going to get caught big. They’re going to go negative. This is going to have a significant impact on  the bonds in commodity markets especially.

Keep an eye on GOLD and TLT today to see what the market is pricing in. Check out the article I wrote about on game theory and the markets, and why you should pay attention to not only equities, buy bonds and commodities as well.