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Derive pleasure from following your trading rules, not from profits

One of the most difficult things in trading is associating pain or pleasure with following (or not following) your trading rules, and not from your day-to-day trading results.

Trading results are random. That is a fact.

For example, let’s say you have an edge that results in you being profitable 60% of the time. This means that you will still lose money on 40% of your trades. Beating yourself up for these losses has zero benefit to you as a trader.

We are battling ourselves

The human psyche is fragile. We are battling our egos.

Sometimes in trading we get more concerned about being “right” than making money. This is why we sit on losing positions, hoping they come back in our favor. This is why we don’t take small losses, allowing them to turn into big ones.

I was stuck in a rut, which I’m working towards getting out of. Today has been a step in the right direction for me. Today my focus is on following my trading rules, not make a profit per se. This is really hard to do. Besides, isn’t the goal to make profits after all?

Associate positive feelings with following your trading rules, not the end results

Accepting that a trade is going against you and cutting it should be associated with positive feelings because you cut those losers early.

No one wants to lose money, and that’s why it’s so hard to associate a positive feeling with taking a loss. Taking losses sucks, and we all wish they were avoidable.

It’s difficult to do this. Losing money hurts. But, it’s important to reframe losses as a cost of running your trading business.

I have to remind myself to be impatient with losing trades. I can’t fear cutting a loser too soon. If trade doesn’t feel right and isn’t going the way I expect it to, it’s okay to cut it.

I have to remind myself to not look back at trades that have been cut loose. This look back bias makes me kick myself for not holding a trade longer. This is detrimental to my future trading performance, because I end up holding losers longer that should’ve been cut the moment they no longer felt like good trades.

I have to remind myself that I can always re-enter a trade if an attractive setup presents itself once again.

Dealing with randomness

Establishing a set of trading rules, and sticking to those trading rules has proved to me to result in more profitable trades rather than focusing on profits alone.

If you have a legitimate edge in the market, a set of good trading rules to follow, then profits will follow as result of disciplined trading.

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This week was rough for me

I got my ass kicked this week by the market.

It started early in the week, when I bought WORK and SPCE call options, just before the market reversed course on Monday and sold off in the final hours of the day. Because the SPCE options expired on Friday of the same week, I had no choice to cut this loser. Only to see it rip higher Thursday and Friday.

I started the week in a hole, down $1,100.

I spent the rest of the week trying to climb out of the hole, only to make the situation worse. End result, down $4,000 on the week.

How did this happen?

Getting in a hole sucks. Spending the rest of the time trying to climb out of the hole led me to making sloppy trades, overtrading, and putting on trades that I wouldn’t normally make on SPY and IWM that I told myself were “hedges” in case the market sold again.

I forgot what was working.

I forgot how I made $12,000 in a matter of weeks from May 27th to June 19th.

Nothing seemed to work.

Every trade went against me as soon as I entered it. Or so I thought.

Either way, it doesn’t matter what they did.

What did matter was my mindset sucked. I was in a bad mental state, and desperately tried to “undo” my bad trades from the early part of the week, only to have even more bad trades to “undo”.

I wasn’t doing what works for me.

I started trading options expiring this week. I started day trading more even though I very much prefer swing trading a position for 1-2 weeks.

I cut winners too soon (primarily due to short-dated options being traded).

I let losers run on too long.

I added to losing positions.

I put on positions that were not favorable from the get go.

I spent too much time this week hoping for my positions to go in my favor.

Now is a time for reflection

It’s the weekend. My trading week sucked. But I still live to trade another day.

Goal #1 and always: DON’T LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY. When the money is gone, the game is over.

I’m going to take this weekend to reflect on my trades. I will review past trades further and understand what happened and why it happened. I will try to understand what my mental state was when I entered into those trades.

Trading is hard. It’s hard to tell by all the so-called experts all over social media. They’d have you believe they make profits all day. You rarely see is the hard part of trading. The part where it beats the shit out of you and makes you question why you started in the first place.

I share this for anyone else who had a bad day, week, month, or year. It’s not easy. It’s not supposed to be easy. I knew that. You know that. So take time to reflect, take care of yourself, and objectively review those trades and improve the process. It’s the only thing I know how to do.

Why you need to get better at taking losses

If you have any dreams of becoming a trader, one of the most important things you can do is take losses.

Taking losses is admitting defeat.

Taking losses is means you analysis was wrong.

Taking losses is unacceptable.

These are myths that we tell ourselves about taking losses.

The three most costly trading errors you can make

According to Mark Douglas, author of Trading in the Zone (book notes here) the three most costly trading mistakes you can make are:

  1. Not predefining your risk
  2. Not cutting your losses
  3. Not systematically taking profits

Taking losses hurts. But why does it hurt so much?

On a psychological level, you don’t want to be wrong. Being wrong means losing money, and you don’t want to lose money. Losing money is painful.

Being wrong is a hit to your ego. It means your analysis failed.

Too often traders allow themselves to sit on a losing position, waiting for it to come around in their favor. I can speak from personal experience regarding this.

For about my first year of trading, it was so difficult for me to cut losing trades early on.

I didn’t know when to cut a trade. I thought to myself “if I just wait a little longer, the trade will come back my way. I just know I’m right.”

Frame losses differently: the cost of doing business

Losing trades are a business expense.

They are the cost of doing business as a trader. Don’t look at them as anything else. They are not a reflection on your analysis. They are not a reflection of you as a person.

Losses are merely the cost of doing business in an uncertain environment with uncertain outcomes.

 

 

Dave Portnoy is playing the media like a fiddle

For those of you who don’t know, Dave Portnoy is the CEO of Barstool Sports, and has taken on the persona of Davey Day Trader since sports were cancelled in March due to coronavirus.

Dave’s an avid sports fan and sports gambler, and trading stocks have given him and many others an outlet as the sports world is put on hold.

Now that Dave has gone on a winning streak, he’s called out the likes of those in the FinTwit community, including calling Ross Gerber a “SIMP” and Warren Buffett “washed up” and an “idiot”.

At first, financial media thought what Dave was doing was pretty cute. Fast Money would have him on their program and their panel of experts would give Dave advice on stocks.

But now they’re fed up with him. Interviewers appear to be defensive. Portnoy continues to remain brash as long as he continues to make money in the market.

What the media doesn’t realize is that they are being PLAYED by Portnoy for millions of dollars in free publicity.

And you know the sad thing?

This is the same playbook that Trump used to get free publicity through his 2016 campaign. The media believed there was no chance Trump could beat Hillary, so they built up Trump as the candidate so they could rag on him every time he said something stupid. Then he won the election and it wasn’t quite so funny.

This was the same playbook used by Lavar Ball to get free publicity when his son Lonzo Ball was at UCLA and getting drafted by the Lakers. Lavar was building up his own brand, Big Baller Brands, and leveraged media attention to try to monetize this idea.

He used his son’s hard work and accomplishments to push his own thing. It only ended once Lonzo Ball rolled his ankles multiple time in Ball Baller Brand shoes causing him to switch over to Nike, and suing a former brand partner.

The media gets played so hard. They fall for these electric, brash, loud personalities who say whatever is on their mind. Then they get defensive and attack when those loud people don’t do what they want them to do.

That’s what’s happening with Portnoy. As he continues to brag about his stock market gains, financial media and those in the financial space grow more and more resentful of the man.

Thing is, Dave doesn’t care about making money in the market. Once the world goes back to normal, and sports come back into our lives, Dave will go right on back to running Barstool sports. Except now the Barstool sports brand has been exposed to tens of millions of people who may not have otherwise heard of them.

So, financial media, you are being played. You fed the beast, the beast has become bigger. Now you are upset that Portnoy is making a joke out of the financial industry.

To the mainstream media in general: you get played so hard repeatedly, and you don’t even realize what is going on. While your attention is on Dave’s trades, he’s busying enjoying all this free publicity at the benefit his brand.

Don’t like it? Stop giving him attention. That’s it.

I’m sorry for anybody shorting this market

This is a difficult market to get a read on, that’s for sure.

Shorting the market right now is a fool’s errand. Whether you believe liquidity from the Fed is driving the market higher or not doesn’t matter.

The market wants to go higher. That’s where the path of least resistance continues to be at the moment.

Selloffs are very few and far between. You have to be tactical and quick with any shorts in this market. They can payoff, as they did for me on Thursday and part of Friday. But they stop working very quickly.

We are all waiting for the next big selloff. It may come. It may not. For that reason you have to be careful until we get there.

I learned my lesson last year

I got burned time after time shorting the market for the larger part of 2019.

I was focused on fundamentals, trade war headlines, and a seemingly deteriorating market.

So I shorted consistently all of last year. I came very close to blowing up actually. I was down 80% at one point.

It wasn’t until March of this year that my short positions paid of very handsomely and actually got me back to even despite the horrible 2019 year.

In recent weeks my trading has improved

I’m more focused on what VVIX and VIX are telling me in terms of volatility. If I believe these are trending higher, then I’m going to be biased to mix in long and short trades to capitalize on a move in either direction.

However, if VVIX and VIX are trending lower, them I’m biased to hold a majority of my positions long in the market, depending on what is moving on that given day. In recent weeks, I’ve been able to make good plays on the likes of XLF, GS, JPM, BA, UAL, RCL, CCL, F, TSLA, XOM, AMD, NVDA, VIAC just to name a few.

Take profits and cut losers

I like to play options that are 2-4 weeks away from their expiration date. Weekly options (5 or less days to expiration) are too risky for my style right now. I like to give my options a little breathing room.

I watch my positions like a hawk. When I begin getting down 20% I seriously have to consider cutting this position and taking a loss. Once I’m down 40% I cut it no questions asked.

I also try to take profits on 50% of the position around a 10% gain (or more if it’s there). Then I take off another 25% around a 20% gain (or more). The I leave the final 25% of my position to run to see how far it can go.

Last week I had a SPY put option that I let run, that went from $90 to $630 in a matter of days. In the past, I would have never let it go that far because I would’ve booked all of my profits too soon. But because I had already closed out 80% of the position at a gain, that last contract I was holding was essentially risk-free and I had no problems holding it for a little longer.

If you want to learn more about trading psychology, I highly recommend you check out my notes on Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas.

Been playing lotto calls on big movers…

This market is insane. For that reason, I’ve been playing short-term call options on those names getting bid the most recently.

Banks, airlines, cruise lines, oil, casinos, retailers, are all industries I’ve dipped into and out of recently. I’ve traded it on short-term call options about 3-7 weeks out.

My main focus is to take of 1/4 of a position at 10% profits, another 2/4 position at 20-30% profits, and then let the remainder of the position run. Taking profits is critical to setting up risk-free trades.

That’s the way it has to be played right now.

It’s very very very easy to adopt a bearish mindset right now.

The market is going insane.

But I’m thinking about it like the tech bubble.

My main focus is to keep my holdings short. I never held any of my lotto positions past 2 days unless it was the 1/4 winning position remaining.

It’s much much easier to let winners run when you booked 3/4 of your position at a profit. Those runners have ended up making up my big home runs in recent days.

My best trade was UAL last Friday, which I booked at 361% profit. F also netted me 192% profit.

I cut losers at around 20-40% drawdown on these positions without any regrets. It’s worked out well so far. But that can change very quickly.

The return of selling in the stock market

I believe we are about to see heavy selling in the market once again.

We have seen the return of some selling, with the S&P 500 down 4.7% this week as of my writing on May 14th.

Why do I believe this?

Coming into this week, I expected a calm week with usual options expiration (OPEX) week behavior. From my observations, market makers can usually move markets and control price action more strongly some weeks than other.

Market makers can influence markets especially in times when volume is low and volatility is low. This week, the market has seen more selling than usual during OPEX week from my experience.

Not only that, but we haven’t seen the drastic moves in the S&P futures contracts overnight. Last week, it felt like every day we were seeing moves higher after a day of selling off during regular trading hours.  See tweet below:

on moves 5-14-20

The last time I remember feeling like this during an OPEX week was for the trading week ended February 21, 2020 and we all remember what followed over the next month.

What are gamma levels saying?

On May 11, 2020 I noted that $2.2 bn in positive gamma was coming off books this opex Friday.

tweet 5-14-20

Now these options could have been rolled out or closed altogether. We never really know. But I expected much of this gamma exposure to be moved in a manner that would bring us closer to zero gamma.

With all the selling this week, gamma levels have now turned negative across the board according to spotgamma. This is not good if you are bullish equities right now.

spotgamme 5-14-20

While component gamma is still positive, per Squeezemetrics, and DIX signals that Dark Pools continue their buying binge, I can’t ignore headwinds that we are going to face in the next week or two.

squeeze 5-14-20

What headwinds are we faced with?

Will we see a second wave of infections?

What businesses are going to go out of business for good?

How many of the now 36 million lost jobs will actually be recovered?

What will be the recovery time of those lost jobs?

What kind of demand shocks are we in store for over the next year or two?

How far is the Fed willing to go with their monetary policies?

Will the Fed buy equities?

With all of these questions unanswered, it’s very difficult to be bullish right now.

The rise of the carry trade

One great book I’ve been reading lately is The Rise of Carry: The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis by Tim Lee, Jamie Lee, and Kevin Coldiron (Amazon affiliate link)

This book has been eye-opening to me. The authors have elegantly connected the dots between Central bank interventions, interest rates, the carry trade, bringing all of these elements together.

The concepts explained in this book made me understand why fundamental analysis seems to matter less these days and why Federal Reserve press conferences garner so much attention.

What is the carry trade?

A carry trade is a type of trade that makes money when “nothing happens” or when volatility is low (variance of price is low). This trade is similar to selling insurance, where you collect a premium in exchange for taking on downside risk of some event taking place.

A carry trade can be done in a number of ways. The term “carry trade” is a broad term that groups these different types of trades together.

What are the features of a carry trade?

The features of the carry trade include leverage, liquidity provision, short exposure to volatility, and a “sawtooth” return pattern of small steady profits punctuated by occasional large losses.

What is an example of carry trade?

One type of carry trade is a currency carry trade. In this trade, you borrow a currency that has a low interest rate, then use that money to buy another currency that pays a higher interest rate.

The goal of this trade is to profit on the difference between the interest rates.

However, one problem with this trade is that on its own, it doesn’t have high yields. The payoff for this trade is small, so to increase returns and make these investments more attractive for investors, those who do these trades employ significant leverage. Leverage on such trades could be 10 to 1, 20 to 1, sometimes even 60 to 1 leverage.

Why are carry trades popular with investors?

Carry trades generally will return steady profits for extended periods of time. This is what makes them attractive to investors. During boring times in the market with low volatility, these strategies are profitable.

What are the drawbacks to the carry trade?

When the carry trade loses money, it has the potential to lose a lot in a hurry. This massive loss potential is due to the amount of leverage used in a carry trade. Because the carry trade relies on stability in prices (low volatility), any behavior outside of “normal” behavior leads to high volatility and high losses.

In addition, carry trades have an effect of increasing liquidity as the carry trade expansion phase goes on. This leads to a carry bubble. As the carry bubble pops, the carry trade has the opposite affect on liquidity. The decrease in liquidity in the market happens because carry trades are forced to be reduced or closed altogether.

In this sense, the cycle of the carry bubble and carry crash and the economic cycle have become one in the same.

To be continued…

Good articles for more information

The World Is One Big Carry Trade – institutionalinvestor.com (intro below)

As I watched a 2,000-point sell-off in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday, March 12, I realized that Tim Lee — the founder and chief economist at piEconomics — had got it all figured out before he recently retired.

Along with co-authors Jamie Lee (no relation) and Kevin Coldiron in The Rise of Carry, he laid out his theory of how unprecedented levels — and types of — central bank intervention in financial markets over the past few decades have turned the global economy into a series of overlapping carry trades…

This article and series of articles continues to be a work-in-progress.

Back to work here…

Hello friend!

I’m back to working on this blog starting this month.

This is what I’ve been up to

The months of February and March were crazy with the coronavirus and its impact on the market. I was busy most of the time in these months trading, documenting, programming, and continuing the improve and refine my trading processes.

2018 (with emphasis on the last three months of the year) was extremely rough for me. I fought the Fed multiple times on trades and I lost. I was actually looking for jobs in January and February because I wasn’t sure I’d be able to continue trading.

That changed, fast

Volatility in the market took off. I held short positions that profited insanely. Negative gamma had proven to be my ally. Convexity won out.

This extended my runway another 4-6 months at a minimum. It’s been a scary ride but I’m loving every minute of it.

What’s to come

Anything that I’m interested in. I’m currently interested in the following things, in no particular order.

  • Understanding gamma exposure deeper
  • Other options greeks and their effects on markets
  • Higher order options greeks (vanna and volma)
  • Game theory
  • Kelly criterion and position sizing
  • The rise of the carry trade
  • Federal Reserve operations
  • The current state of the economy
  • The current state of politics in the world
  • Python programming
  • Calculating gamma exposure from easy to obtain information
  • Building trading dashboards

That’s just a few I can think of off the top of my head.

Follow this blog to stay updated.

Trading in the Zone – Book Notes

I recently finished reading Mark Douglas’s book, Trading in the Zone. This book found me at an opportune time, as I’ve been going through a rough patch with my trading and especially my mindset while trade.

If there is one book I highly recommend you read as a trader to get your state of mind right, it’s Trading in the Zone. Here are my book summary notes below. Note that my summary notes are not short. It’s over 2,500 words of the best wisdom I pulled out of the book.

Book Summary Notes

Have confidence in trades.

Focus on opportunities.

Fundamental analysis is the study of finding supply and demand of an investment based off fundamental information.

Technical analysis is based off patterns in an investments’ historical data.

Technical analysis is more “in the moment” than fundamental analysis. You react in the moment to changes in prices.

Good traders have rules for entry and exits.

Accept risk before putting on a position and never assume you are correct. Be quick to admit you’re wrong.

Accept the possibility that you will lose money so that you can objectively manage a position.

Good traders aren’t afraid because they have effective management strategies to enter and exit trades.

The four primary trading fears are:

  1. Being wrong
  2. Losing money
  3. Missing out
  4. Leaving money on the table

We blame the market for our losing money.

How you view the market affects the consistency of your results.

You can never know the myriad of ways the market can make you lose money.

Accept that the outcome of a trade is unknown, and that one trade is not a reflection on you as a trader. Failure to accept this leads to costly decisions.

Doing more market analysis will not make you a better trader. Acceptance of what the market is will.

Accept the risk you take on with every trade, and you will no longer be afraid.

Trade without fear, and have rules to prevent reckless behavior.

The market presents you with unlimited possibilities, and this can challenge those not equipped to deal with this fact.

Desires are generated internally, but must be fulfilled externally.

Once we identify a desire we are drawn to fill that desire externally. Denial of this opportunity to fulfill a desire leads to pain.

Accept that trades are a probabilistic outcome, and define how much risk you are willing to take on this probability.

Prices always move. Your entries and exits last as long as you want.

The market will not make you exit a trade. You must do that. Don’t be a passive loser. Actively lose by defining your risk.

Trading gives you ultimate freedom. This can be a curse because you have no structure to follow.

Most of those who get into trading initially struggle to create a set of rules to follow.

That which draws us to trading is the same thing that makes us resist creating trading rules.

Your impulses hinder your ability to trade well for psychological reasons.

You must keep yourself responsible for the way you take profits and take losses.

If you play probabilistic edges, you must be consistent in how you trade them and not get thrown off by a few losing trades.

Don’t get hung up on any single trade.

Adapt to your environment and create rules so that you can adapt appropriately.

Winning early as a trader can hurt your long-term performance.

Trying to “understand why” the markets do something can hurt you in the long run.

Your mental attitude will produce better results than analysis alone.

Trading can be a simple pursuit in which you don’t need a ton of skills, but rather a winning attitude.

Operate from the belief that trading losses are a natural part of trading and should be considered as your business expenses.

We feel pain when reality fails to meet our expectations, especially when they are unrealistic.

Losing traders blame markets for their losses.

You blame markets for your results if you don’t accept the randomness of markets, have rules to protect you against this randomness, and take responsibility of your results.

Your goal is to extract money from the market, and the markets’ goal is to extract money from you.

Markets owe you nothing. Don’t blame them for your losses.

Take complete responsibility of your trading. Otherwise you will view the market as your adversary and you believe that your problems can be fixed by better analysis.

Every entry and exit on a trade is an opportunity for you to act in your own best interest.

You are never fighting the market, because it owes you nothing.

Learning about markets isn’t bad, but it can give you a false confidence that you know what will happen next and ignore the randomness inherent to markets.

Learning more about markets isn’t going to eliminate losing trades. Don’t take losing trades personally.

Accept your losses and you will no longer view market information as painful. You will view it as it is, information.

Our bias to avoid pain makes us ignore or alter information that the market provide us.

In sports there is a more discernible connection between one’s focus and results. It’s harder to see this connection in trading.

Leaving money on the table can be more painful than taking a loss because you know you missed out on a large profit.

Make winning and consistency are states of mind.

Make yourself available to what the market is offering you.

Our biases make us interpret information that is favorable to our own egos, even though it can hurt more in the long run.

Fear causes 95% of the errors you are likely to make.

Think about trading in a way that keeps fear at bay so that you can continue to focus on opportunities.

Let the market unfold and make yourself available to opportunities with a clear mind.

Accept risk and you won’t have anything to fear.

You see what you’ve learned to see, and miss that which you haven’t learned to see.

Every trade is an edge with a probable outcome. Know this to define your risk, and eliminate your fears.

Perceive the market objectively. Don’t project your own feelings on the market.

Your emotional mind links your current state to your most recent trading experiences, which can be painful and create a fearful state of mind.

The “secret” to trading well is four items:

  1. Trade without fear OR overconfidence
  2. Perceive what the market is offering clearly
  3. Stay focused on the “now moment opportunity flow”
  4. Enter the “zone” and believe in an uncertain outcome with an edge in your favor

Great traders don’t let emotions of recent trades influence their process.

To be a consistently successful trader one must learn adapt.

It can take years for most traders to figure out that consistency trumps picking the occasional winner.

The best traders cut their losses without hesitation if the market tells them it’s not working.

The three most costly trading errors you can make

  1. Not predefining your risk
  2. Not cutting your losses
  3. Not systematically taking profits

Thinking that you “know” what will happen next is the cause of most trading errors you will make.

The most effective trading belief you can acquire is “anything can happen.”

Every trader acts on their own belief about what is high and what is low, and collective behavior pattern is displayed in the price at that moment.

Every trade you make is unique from every other trade you’ve made.

Train your mind to think in probabilities, and have actions that you take to deal with these unknown outcomes.

Don’t ever convince yourself you’re right when you enter into a trade. Instead, define the risk.

When you think you know what will happen, you are effectively thinking you know the future actions of every single individual and how they will move prices.

Markets are unique, anything is possible. To ignore this fact is foolish.

Your beliefs are shaped by your expectations. These beliefs cause you perceive market information that confirms your bias, and ignore market information that conflicts with your bias.

Market information that goes against our position is ignored when we find it too painful to acknowledge.

We focus on information that helps minimize our pain, which is destructive to our trading.

We lose out on opportunities when we choose to ignore what the market is telling us.

Our pain-avoidance mechanism shields us from seeing information that is not aligned with our beliefs.

Traders must learn to be rigid in our rules, and flexible in our expectations.

There are five fundamental truths you must accept to think probabilistically:

  1. Anything can happen
  2. You don’t need to know what will happen next to make money
  3. Wins and losses are randomly distributed for any given edge
  4. An edge is an indication of higher probability of one thing over another
  5. Every moment in the market is unique

When you put on a trade, your only expectation is that something will happen. That’s it.

Define a stop loss for every trade. This should be some point where the odds of success are greatly diminished in relation to the potential profit.

Losses are the cost of doing business in the course of finding winning trades.

Each moment in the market is an opportunity to do something on your behalf. You always have an opportunity to:

  1. Scratch a trade
  2. Trade profits
  3. Cut losses
  4. Add or detract from a position

Expectations are beliefs projected into some future moment.

We can’t know what to expect from the market because other traders are always there to enter and exit trades based off their own beliefs about the future.

The only thing you should “know” in trading is what an edge looks like, how much you need to risk, and a plan for taking profits or losses on a trade. You can never know if any one trade will work out.

Don’t have an agenda when you trade. Make yourself available to the opportunities the market makes available to you with a clear mind.

Emotional pain is a response we have when the world expresses itself in a manner opposite of our beliefs.

Don’t expect the market to make you “right” or “wrong”.

Don’t expect to market to go in your favor forever. Establish rules for taking profits.

Gathering more information to predict if a coin will flip heads or tails is silly. Why would you expect it to work in the markets? Remember that every trade is probabilistic.

Every moment is unique, and therefore you will never “know” what will happen next.

Don’t try to change your beliefs. Remove the energy behind that belief, and channel it towards better beliefs.

It’s hard to make new discoveries when your internal beliefs conflict with those discoveries.

The underlying cause of fear in trading is interpreting market information as threatening.

You must believe that every edge has a unique outcome in order to trade without fear.

You must believe you don’t know what is going to happen next.

Train your mind to expect a unique outcome in order to see market information objectively.

Believe that each moment is unique in order to achieve mental freedom while trading.

Trading is a pattern recognition numbers game. Identify patterns for some edge, define your risk, and take profits consistently. Some trades work and some don’t. Don’t take it personally.

Trading is one of the hardest things to do because the more you think you know, the less successful you’ll be.

Manage your expectations as a trader and align your mental environment with the five fundamental truths.

  1. Trust yourself to operate in an unlimited environment
  2. Focus on flawlessly executing a trading system
  3. Think in probabilities – the five fundamental truths
  4. Create a strong belief in your consistency as a trader

Your primary objective as a trade should be to produce consistent results. The way you do that is by following your trading rules with unshakeable confidence.

Consistency should be your primary reason for trading.

Making mistakes will happen until your beliefs are in harmony with your desires and your beliefs are consistent with what works from an environment’s perspective.

Don’t think less of yourself when you make mistakes.

Mistakes should not hold negatively charged energy for you.

Beliefs must be in alignment with goals and desires to eliminate any conflicting energy.

You must create the belief that you are a consistently successful trader.

Don’t make it a goal to guess correctly. Make it a goal to be consistent with your techniques.

Tell yourself, I am a consistent winner because:

  1. I objectively identify my edges
  2. I predefine the risk of every trade
  3. I accept risk and am willing to let go of trades
  4. I act on my edge without hesitation
  5. I pay myself as the markets make profits available to me
  6. I monitor myself for my susceptibility to make errors
  7. I never violate these principles above

To be an objective observer, think from the market’s perspective. There are always unknown forces waiting to act on price movement so that every moment is truly unique.

The typical trading errors are:

  1. Hesitating
  2. Jumping the gun
  3. Not predefining risk
  4. Defining risk but not taking a loss
  5. Exiting a winning trade too soon
  6. Not taking profits on a winning trade
  7. Letting a winning trade turn into a loser
  8. Moving stop too close to your entry point
  9. Trading too large a position in relation to your equity

You can change your identity by changing your desires.

Losses call for larger % returns in order to be profitable. A 50% loss requires a 100% return to become profitable again.

Divide your position into thirds or quarters, and scale out of the position when taking profits.

Take off a portion of a winning position whenever the market presents you with the opportunity to do so.

In a three contract trade, establish a stop loss, and take profits by scaling out of the position one contract at a time.

Scale out of positions to create “risk-free opportunities”. These are positions where you have taken profits to the extent of max loss allowable on the remainder of the position, therefore guaranteeing a break-even trade at a minimum.

Try to achieve a risk to reward ratio of 3:1, which means you risk one dollar for every three dollars of profit potential.

Success or failure of a strategy should be based off a sample size of 20 trades or more.

An edge is merely a snapshot which captures a limited portion of all probabilities.

Be willing to make 20 trades on a strategy before making a judgement of its effectiveness.

Follow your trading rules and focus on the five fundamental truths in trading.

If you can go through 20 trades without allowing your emotions to influence you adherence to rules and probabilities, then you discover that thinking in probabilities is a functioning part of your identity.

Conclusion

Again, if there is one book I highly recommend you read as a trader to get your state of mind right, it’s Trading in the Zone.

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